Biertempfel: 9 fearless predictions for the Pirates’ 2023 season (2024)

PITTSBURGH — We’re at that point in the Pirates’ offseason when the roster moves are pretty much all shaken out, spring training is around the corner and a season full of surprises awaits.

Last January, nobody knew what to make of José Quintana or when Oneil Cruz would arrive in the big leagues to stay. Ke’Bryan Hayes’ sunflower seeds and Rodolfo Castro’s cellphone were merely things they carried in their pockets, not the causes of social media kerfuffles. Going 5-1 against the Dodgers seemed like a million-to-one shot.

Who could have predicted all that? Not me. Who can say what 2023 will bring?

OK, I’ll give it a shot.

Andrew McCutchen’s story will have a happy ending

The missing ingredient in the Pirates’ alchemy for success isn’t a part-time outfielder/DH who’s produced a total of 4.8 fWAR over the past five seasons. However, bringing McCutchen back to Pittsburgh could have lots of tangible and intangible upside.

Last season, Pirates right fielders hit .210/.290/.350 with 0.0 fWAR. Even at 36 years old and with a surgically rebuilt left knee, McCutchen can do better than that over 40 or 50 games out there.

The Pirates had losing records in six of McCutchen’s nine seasons here. There also was a three-year stretch when they were one of the best clubs in the National League. Through it all — whether it was the 98-win season in 2015 or the 105-loss season in 2010 — his demeanor never changed.

“You always catch him with a smile on his face,” said pitcher Jeff Locke, who played with McCutchen from 2011 to 2016. “Even when things got tough, he went about his business the right way. Always on time. Always works hard. I guess this is one of those words that gets thrown around a little bit and taken for granted, but he is a true professional.”

McCutchen never has been a rah-rah or get-in-your-face type of leader, but his voice carries weight with teammates. In that sense, he will fill a void in the clubhouse — not only has McCutchen been there and done that, but also he’s done it in Pittsburgh.

If this turns out to be his final season, McCutchen deserves to bask in a summer-long victory lap at PNC Park. The Pirates need that good karma because …

Bryan Reynolds will be traded

After talks about a potential contract extension got hung up, Reynolds asked the team to trade him. This news came out 48 hours before the Winter Meetings last month and put management in an embarrassing spot.

Since then, Reynolds and his camp have been silent, general manager Ben Cherington has said all the right things about wanting to keep the standout outfielder, and everyone else has been waiting for the next shoe to drop.

This can end one of three ways, and none of them are particularly easy to swallow.

The two sides could put aside any hard feelings and hammer out the richest contract in franchise history. (That sound you just heard was owner Bob Nutting hitting the floor after fainting.)

Reynolds could play this season for the $6.75 million he agreed to last spring, play out the next two years here through the arbitration process, then walk away as a free agent.

The Pirates could find a taker for Reynolds sometime before the trade deadline — after that, his value almost certainly will start to diminish — and collect another bundle of prospects.

My money is on the third option.

Manager Derek Shelton will get an extension

Shelton is entering the fourth and final season of his original contract. The Pirates lost 100 games in each of the past two years and probably would’ve lost 100 in his debut if the season hadn’t been truncated to 60 games.

Yet I don’t think Shelton is on his way out. Don’t be surprised if the team quietly gives him an extension.

In November 2009, the Pirates, coming off a 99-loss season, added another year to then-manager John Russell’s contract. The team did not announce the move until June 2010, probably because it figured the fans wouldn’t react warmly to Russell’s return after such a dismal campaign.

When word finally got out, the team was mired in another losing funk and the news did not go over well. Russell was sacked four months later, but that likely had more to do with his inability to connect with and lead the players than his lack of success with a rotten roster.

Shelton, on the other hand, relates well to his guys. At the end of the 2022 season, Cherington gave the skipper a vote of confidence.

“Despite the difficult times we’re going through, the effort has been there on the field,” Cherington said. “The team is playing hard, competing until the last pitch. That is not to be taken for granted because it doesn’t always happen on teams that are in this difficult time. That reflects well on ‘Shelty’ and the staff, certainly.”

Shelton has endured growing pains over the past three seasons. As the team’s talent level slowly ticks up, he’ll be under more pressure to produce. It will be interesting to see how he handles the Reynolds situation, too.

The systemic changes that would inevitably come with a new manager and staff could stall some of the progress the Pirates have made. Different coaching styles, different techniques, different relationships.

Extending Shelton would seem to make sense. The question is, will it be another four-year deal or will the front office hedge its bets and give him a shorter term?

Tyler Heineman will catch more games than Endy Rodriguez

Selfishly, this is one prediction I hope doesn’t come true. It was fun watching snippets of Rodriguez’s crackling 2022 season play out with Double-A Altoona. He’ll light up Pittsburgh, too … whenever he gets here.

Patience, patience. Rodriguez has played a total of 37 games above Class A. He won’t turn 23 years old until May. Rodriguez, like Oneil Cruz, looks to be the kind of franchise-altering prospect whose development has to be handled perfectly.

Rodriguez will open the season at Triple-A Indianapolis and stay there until at least mid-June. Management will say that’s about checking off boxes, and it will be correct about that, but it’s also about keeping his service time clock from ticking.

Eventually, Rodriguez will grace the grass at PNC Park. But he probably won’t be a full-time catcher from the outset. Shelton loves versatility and Rodriguez has oodles of it. So he’ll probably get some time in the outfield — hmm, maybe there’ll be a vacancy there after July — and at second base and as the designated hitter.

If starter Austin Hedges is banged up for even a week or two, Heineman could get enough games behind the plate to build an insurmountable lead before Rodriguez is promoted.

Next year, however, the situation ought to be very different.

Management will be smarter with David Bednar

Bednar produced 19 saves, a 2.61 ERA and 1.5 fWAR over 45 appearances last year. He also missed 45 games because of a sore lower back. “Very frustrating to be on the shelf for that long,” he said.

After finally coming off the injured list, Bednar made five appearances over the final two weeks of the season. This winter, he’s been focused on strengthening his back with workouts and yoga.

“It’s not one of those things that’s not just going to go away like that,” Bednar said last month before a team function at PNC Park. “Each day, it gets a little bit better. I’m happy with how I was able to finish the season and I’m definitely in a better spot right now. I’m looking forward to coming into spring training strong and ready to roll.”

It’s management’s job to keep him that way, which means his usage pattern cannot be the same as it was last season. The Pirates rode Bednar hard — especially in June, when he threw 75 pitches and got 14 outs over two outings. By the end of that month, his lower back was barking and he was unavailable for a couple of games.

Bednar will report to spring training a couple of days early because he’s set to play in the World Baseball Classic. The Pirates certainly have told the Team USA coaching staff to be careful with Bednar’s workload. That approach ought to stay in place during the regular season, too.

Hayes finally will play a full season

Does Hayes deserve the eight-year, $70 million extension he signed last April? It’s hard to say for certain because we have not seen a complete picture of who he is as a player.

Hayes made his major-league debut halfway through the shortened 2020 season and played 24 games. He hit like a Hall of Famer — .376/.442/.682 with five homers — but, again, it was 24 games.

Wrist injuries limited him to 96 games in 2021. Last season, a forearm muscle spasm forced him out of a game after one inning on the day his new contract was revealed. Hayes played 136 games, batted .244/.314/.345 and said in late September that he’d been hampered all season by a sore hip and back.

“It’s frustrating,” Hayes said. “Really, 2020 was the last time I felt normal.”

Two years of aches and subpar performances had to motivate Hayes to listen carefully to his body this offseason. He’s due to catch a break and avoid fluke injuries. A full, healthy season would give Hayes a chance to prove the Pirates did the right thing by handing him that massive contract.

The new schedule won’t do the Pirates any favors

Beginning this year, MLB will have a revamped schedule format. There are still 162 games, but for the first time each team will play all 29 other clubs in the regular season. The change was made in part because expanding the playoff field lessened the importance of division games.

For the past couple of decades, nearly half of the Pirates’ schedule consisted of games against its NL Central foes. Last year, they faced the Cubs, Reds, Brewers and Cardinals 19 times each.

The Pirates this season will play 13 division games, which is about one-third of their total schedule. They won’t see the Cubs and Brewers for the first time until the middle of June.

The NL Central was awful last year and looks to be weak again this year. From the Pirates’ point of view, swapping 18 matchups against the Reds, Brewers and Cubs for games against American League clubs isn’t a fair trade. Yeah, they’ll get to face the stripped-down A’s and rebuilding Royals, but they’ll also have to take on the Yankees, Astros, Blue Jays and Mariners.

Nutting will break his silence and explain everything!

I still have that subscriber-generated list of two dozen selected questions ready to go, in case the franchise’s media-shy principal owner ever again pokes his head into an interview room.

A lot of stuff has transpired since the last time Nutting talked to reporters. There was the hellscape that was the 2019 season. The Pirates cast a “yea” vote for the new collective bargaining agreement, which gives no new help to small-market clubs. Franchises lost millions of dollars during the pandemic. The Pirates posted back-to-back 100-loss seasons for only the second time in franchise history.

Through it all, Nutting, who 16 years ago seized the role of steward of this century-old civic treasure that is the Pittsburgh Base Ball Club, has ignored repeated requests for comment. Maybe this year, finally, he’ll offer the fans some explanations.

Hey, a guy can dream, right? And speaking of dreaming …

The Pirates will not lose 100 games*

Yeah, I know, this is the third straight year I’ve typed those words. Call me Mr. Jinx.

In fairness, though, my prediction last year was made during the lockout and came with a disclaimer: “If MLB plays a typical 162-game season, then forget most of what I just said. The Pirates will go 62-100.”

There was a full season despite the lockout and the Pirates collected 62 wins. I’m going to claim victory on that prediction.

This time around, we know there’s a full season ahead. I am again bullish on forecasting a loss total that’s only in double digits (although still a painfully high number).

The Pirates will get a full season of Cruz in the majors. The restrictions on the shift should help them create a bit more offense. The bullpen could be more settled than last year. “Cutch” is back! Maybe Rich Hill will pitch like a kid again and Vince Velasquez will rebound. And thanks to Carlos Santana, first base won’t be a black hole of despair.

My optimism isn’t reckless enough for me to predict a .500 record. That would require a 20-game improvement from a roster that’s only a bit better than it was a year ago. But is 69-93 within reach? Sure. So there ya go.

Wait … is that an asterisk up there in the subheadline, like there was on my prediction in this space last season? Uh oh …

*Note: If Reynolds is traded before Opening Day, then forget most of what I just said. The Pirates will go 62-100.

(Top photo of Andrew McCutchen: Bruce Kluckhohn / USA Today)